BAGHDAD (Reuters) -
Iraqi forces may face a big battle near Baghdad before they can try to
retake the Islamic State stronghold of Mosul: Falluja, a long-time
bastion of Sunni Muslim jihadists at the capital's western gates.
Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi's government and the
U.S.-led coalition backing it have been cagey so far in plans for
Falluja, which lies between Baghdad and Ramadi, the capital of western
Anbar province that the Iraqi military recaptured this week from the
militants.
Falluja was the first Iraqi city to fall to Islamic State in January
2014, six months before the group that emerged from al Qaeda swept
through large parts of Iraq and neighboring Syria.Abadi said on Monday
the army would head next to Mosul, the biggest urban center under
Islamic State control. He said its capture would mark the end of the
"caliphate" proclaimed from the northern city's main mosque in June
2014.
But with
many western and northern areas still held by Islamic State, the
authorities have not made clear what path they intend to take to Mosul,
400 km (250 miles) north of Baghdad."The government will need to control
Falluja before Mosul," Jabbar al-Yawar, secretary-general of the
peshmerga - the forces of the Kurdish regional government fighting
Islamic State in northern Iraq - told al-Hadath TV.
Ahmed al-Assadi, a spokesman for the Hashid Shaabi - a
coalition of mostly Iranian-backed Shi'ite militias set up to fight
Islamic State - said Falluja would likely come before Mosul. "But the
final decision is with the commander-in-chief," he added, referring to
Abadi, to whom the Hashid formally report.
Daily military statements mention air strikes and attacks
by the Iraqi army and the international coalition in and around Falluja,
a city with a pre-war population of around 300,000 located 70 km (45
miles) west of the capital.
But there has been no indication of if and when a battle
will be launched to take the city, which Baghdad-based analyst Hisham
al-Hashimi said contains around 1,000 Islamic State fighters."There's a
military leadership; there's planning and a military vision,"
Brigadier-General Yahya Rasool, spokesman for the joint operations
command told Reuters on Thursday. "If a battle starts to liberate the
center of Falluja, Falluja itself or any other area, we will announce it
officially."
About 3,000 families remaining in Falluja could be used as human
shields, said Hashimi, who has worked with the Iraqi government.
Around 70,000 families have taken refuge around Baghdad, according to Iraq's High Commission for Human Rights.
TURBULENT PAST
Falluja, downstream from Ramadi in the Euphrates River
valley, is encircled by Iraqi forces, according to the international
coalition, though some militants manage to slip past the cordon.
Assadi said the Hashid were present south of Falluja, on
the road leading to the Shi'ite shrine city of Kerbala, as well as in
some eastern and western areas. There they had helped to isolate the
city and hold areas, freeing up the military to advance.
Maria Fantappie, Iraq analyst at the International Crisis
Group, said that despite Falluja's proximity to Baghdad, it was not
necessarily the next target.
Ramadi's strong tribal networks had made it easier for
Iraqi forces to forge alliances and take control of key areas. "Falluja
has more of an urban structure where tribes are present but are less a
structuring element of the city, so it's going to be much harder to
retake and keep the city under control," she said from Istanbul.
Known as the "City of Minarets and Mother of Mosques",
Falluja is a focus for Sunni faith and identity in Iraq. It was badly
damaged in two offensives by U.S. forces against al Qaeda insurgents in
2004.
The tribes of Anbar helped turn the tide of
that insurgency at its height in 2006, banding together and making
common cause with U.S. troops to rout al Qaeda.
The group's resurgence as Islamic State has divided
residents of Anbar, where many accuse former Prime Minister Nuri
al-Maliki of shutting Sunnis out of power and being a pawn of Shi'ite
power Iran. Some support the Islamist militants, or are too fearful to
move against them.
Fantappie said any attempt to retake Falluja could face local
resistance because of a deal struck more than two years ago between the
jihadis and the city's tribal and urban elements.
Yet local government officials said the capture of Ramadi,
the largest Sunni city regained from Islamic State, had weakened the
militants' morale. It had also created tension with Falluja residents as
well as provoking clashes with Sunni tribes. Those reports could not be
independently confirmed."After some Daesh fighters fled Ramadi to
Falluja ... fears mounted among Falluja residents that a government
offensive on their city could be imminent and pushed many families to
try to leave the city," said Ibrahim al-Fahdawi, a member of the city
council, using a derogatory Arabic acronym for the militants. "Daesh
elements threatened to execute anyone trying to flee, which triggered a
squabble that developed into clashes between residents and Daesh, who
were mostly foreigners," he told Reuters by phone.