WASHINGTON
(AP) -- The U.S. may not have "risen from recession" quite as rousingly
as President Barack Obama suggested in his State of the Union speech
Tuesday night. Seven years after that severe downturn began, household
income hasn't recovered and healthy job growth is complicated by the
poor quality, and pay, of many of those jobs.
It's
always problematic when a president takes credit for an improving
economy, just as it is when he's blamed for things going bad. A leader
can only do so much, for better or worse, and there are two sides to
every economy. But after an election in which Obama largely held off on
chest-beating, he claimed credit in bold terms for what is going right.
Also
in his speech, Obama skimmed over the cost to taxpayers of free
community college tuition and invited closer scrutiny with his claims
about U.S. support for Syrian moderates and about his record of
public-lands preservation.
A look at some of
his claims, and the facts and the political climate behind them, as well
as a glance at the Republican response:
OBAMA:
-"At
this moment - with a growing economy, shrinking deficits, bustling
industry and booming energy production - we have risen from recession
freer to write our own future than any other nation on Earth."
THE FACTS: By many measures, the economy is still recovering from the deep scars left by the Great Recession.
Job
growth has been healthy, but fueled in part by lower-paying jobs in
areas such as retail and restaurants, which have replaced many
higher-paying positions in manufacturing and construction. Part-time
jobs also remain elevated: There are still 1.7 million fewer workers
with full-time jobs than when the recession began in December 2007.
And
the faster hiring hasn't pushed up wages much. They have been growing
at a tepid pace of about 2 percent a year since the recession ended 5
1/2 years ago. That's barely ahead of inflation and below the annual
pace of about 3.5 percent to 4 percent that is typical of a fully
healthy economy.
That has left the income of
the typical household below its pre-recession level. Inflation-adjusted
median household income reached $53,880 in November 2014, according to
an analysis of government data by Sentier Research. That is about 4
percent higher than when it bottomed out in 2011. But it is still 4.5
percent lower than the $56,447 median income in December 2007, the month
the recession began.
Booming energy
production is indeed a reality, but that's a phenomenon many years in
the making, with the development of cost-effective extraction from
fracking and other means playing into the rise of the U.S. as an energy
production giant.
---
OBAMA: "I am sending this Congress a bold new plan to lower the cost of community college - to zero."
THE FACTS: Zero for qualifying students; an estimated $60 billion over 10 years to the treasury.
Obama
confronts a Republican-controlled Congress that can be expected to be
wary of a new program costing that much. Moreover, the proposal requires
states to contribute about a quarter of the money, and getting them to
go along is bound to be tough. Many states refused to expand Medicaid
under the health care law, for example, even though Washington is
picking up the entire cost in the first years.
On
the other hand, community college is an issue close to home for state
government, perhaps more appealing than partnering with Washington on
the health law, so the idea could have a fighting chance if it can get
through Congress. Educators are divided on its merits, with some
worrying that aid for a community college education could divert
students and scholarships away from four-year schools.
---
OBAMA: "We've set aside more public lands and waters than any administration in history."
THE
FACTS: Waters is the key word here. Before expanding the Pacific Remote
Islands National Monument last year from almost 87,000 square miles to
more than 490,000 square miles, Obama had protected far fewer acres than
his four predecessors, including President George W. Bush.
Expansion
of the massive Pacific islands monument puts Obama on top. It's nearly
all water, however, and the move has limited practical implications.
While it bans commercial fishing, deep-sea mining and other extraction
of underwater resources, little fishing or drilling occur in the
mid-ocean region now.
---
OBAMA:
"Thanks to a growing economy, the recovery is touching more and more
lives. Wages are finally starting to rise again. We know that more
small-business owners plan to raise their employees' pay than at any
time since 2007."
THE FACTS: A survey of small
businesses by the National Federation of Independent Business does show
that a rising proportion plans to raise wages. But plans to raise pay
aren't the same as actually raising them.
Average
hourly earnings rose just 1.7 percent in December from 12 months
earlier, according to the Labor Department. That's about half the rate
that is typical of a healthy economy and actually lower than the
previous month. Economists generally expect wage gains to accelerate
this year, as unemployment continues to fall and businesses are forced
to offer higher pay to attract workers. But there is scant evidence that
it is happening yet.
---
OBAMA:
"In Iraq and Syria, American leadership? - ?including our military
power? - ?is stopping ISIL's advance. Instead of getting dragged into
another ground war in the Middle East, we are leading a broad coalition,
including Arab nations, to degrade and ultimately destroy this
terrorist group. We're also supporting a moderate opposition in Syria
that can help us in this effort."
THE FACTS:
The U.S. also has been slow to set up long-promised training for the
moderate Syrian opposition, and has yet to begin the actual vetting of
the rebels. Also, despite persistent pleas from the rebels, the U.S.
hasn't sent the more lethal weapons they want. U.S. officials have
expressed concerns that the weapons could end up in the hands of
insurgents.
Military leaders, however, agree
that coalition airstrikes and the military effort in Syria and Iraq have
stopped the momentum of the Islamic State group, or ISIL, made it hard
for the insurgents to communicate and travel, and hurt their oil
revenues.
---
SEN.
JONI ERNST: The freshman from Iowa listed Obama's health care law among
his "failed policies" and added, "We see the hurt caused by canceled
health care plans and higher monthly insurance bills."
THE FACTS: The jury is still out on the law Republicans call "Obamacare."
The
number of uninsured people is down by at least 10 million. A large
ongoing Gallup survey documented a steady drop in the nation's uninsured
rate since the law's big coverage expansion began last year.
The
law's record on affordability is mixed. The share of Americans forgoing
needed medical care because of cost is down significantly, according to
a Commonwealth Fund survey, and fewer are struggling to pay medical
bills. Yet many insured people with modest incomes still have problems
with high out-of-pocket costs.
As for harm
caused by lost insurance, many in Ernst's party are intent on repealing
the law, which would probably mean even more lost coverage, because many
of the estimated 10 million uninsured people who have gained coverage
through the Affordable Care Act would no longer be able to afford their
premiums.
---
Associated
Press writers Kimberly Hefling, Dina Cappiello, Lolita C. Baldor and
Ricardo Alonso-Zaldivar contributed to this report.